Quick takes:
- Use this draw-down as an opportunity.
- The markets collapsed Thursday from leveraged ETFs (SQQQ & TQQQ) selling $15bn and option dealers selling huge amounts of gamma into the market.
- The Fed will NOT let pensions explode and create a massive retirement crisis in order to fight 8.5% inflation.
- Inflation is already decelerating (used cars/mortgages)
- 6-month returns after VIX spikes to 35+ are 10%+
- Roughly half of Nasdaq stocks are down 46.5% from their 52-wk high.
Remember, there is a greater chance the fed becomes incrementally more dovish than hawkish in 6-9 months. (Bullish) The fed already denied a 75bps hike just last week.
S&P 500: Leaving this here for now. Needs to hold 4,000
6-month returns after VIX spikes to 35+ are 10%+
12-month returns after VIX spikes to 35+ are 20%+
USD has been too strong, which adds to the tightening. It is weakening at resistance here.
After an amazing quarter, AMD needs to break over $100 in order to be called a bottom.
Nvidia is in a much better spot on the 100MA. Below $170 wouldn’t be good. The risk/return to the upside is better right now.
This won’t last.
Return always wants its risk payment. Not Investment Advice.
