The stock market is currently experiencing a downturn as the traditional Santa Claus rally has not materialized this year. The Santa Claus rally is a trend where the stock market typically rises during the last five days of the old year and the first two days of the new year. However, with one day left in the trading period, the S&P 500 is down 0.1% in the past six days.
While the Santa Claus rally is often viewed as an indicator of future market performance, it is important not to rely too heavily on seasonal indicators. Market experts like Jeff Hirsch and Tom McClellan note that a negative Santa Claus rally does not always precede a bear market, and historical data shows that the market has been up 60% of the time following a down Santa Claus rally period.
In addition to the Santa Claus rally, there are other seasonal indicators to consider, such as the First Five Days “Early Warning” System and the January barometer. These indicators have varying success rates in predicting market performance, particularly in election years.
Speaking of elections, 2024 will see 40 national elections around the world, potentially impacting global market performance. With so many elections taking place, fiscal and monetary policymakers may be motivated to pursue policies to avoid recessions, regardless of cost.
It’s important for investors to be mindful of these seasonal indicators and election effects when making decisions in the stock market. While these indicators can provide insight into potential market trends, it’s crucial to also consider other factors that may impact market performance.
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