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The recent US private sector PMI numbers have led investors to increase their bets on a potential Fed rate hike in September. However, the upcoming Personal Income and Outlays Report will be crucial in shaping the market sentiment moving forward.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September currently stands at 28.6%. This marks a slight increase from the 33.4% chance of a hold just a few days ago on April 22nd.
Looking ahead, short-term trends in the AUD/USD pair will be influenced by key economic data releases, such as inflation numbers from Australia and the US Personal Income and Outlays Report due on Friday. Stronger-than-expected inflation figures in Australia could lead to speculation of a rate hike by the RBA, potentially strengthening the Aussie dollar against its US counterpart.
On the technical side, the AUD/USD is currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish bias in price action. A break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move towards the 200-day EMA and the key resistance level at $0.65760.
Conversely, a drop below the support level at $0.64582 could pave the way for a further decline towards the next support level at $0.62713. With the 14-period Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading at 47.91, there is a possibility of the AUD/USD reaching the $0.63500 handle before potentially entering oversold territory.
Stay tuned to Extreme Investor Network for more in-depth analysis and expert guidance on navigating the ever-changing landscape of the stock market and trading world. Trust us to provide you with the insights and information you need to make informed investment decisions and stay ahead of the curve.
