Forecast for USD/JPY: Potential interventions, BoJ measures, and Federal Reserve cautious about CPI

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Recently, the US Jobs Report came in hotter than expected, causing some concern about sticky inflation and its potential impact on the median Fed Funds Rate projection. In March, the FOMC projected a median 2024 FFR of 4.6%, but with inflation being in the spotlight this week, investors must now pay close attention to FOMC member speeches for further clarity on the situation.

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One FOMC member to watch is Neel Kashkari, who recently warned that sticky inflation could lead to the Fed keeping interest rates at 5.5% through 2024. This kind of insight can be crucial for investors looking to make informed decisions based on the latest developments in the market.

Looking at the short-term forecast for the USD/JPY pair, upcoming US CPI Reports and Fed commentary will play a significant role in determining its direction. A stronger US CPI Report could impact the chances of a June Fed rate cut, while hawkish Fed commentary could tilt the scales in favor of the US dollar.

On the charts, the USD/JPY appears to be signaling bullish price signals, staying well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. However, key resistance levels must be monitored for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. Factors such as intervention threats, BoJ decisions, US consumer inflation expectations, and Fed chatter all contribute to the overall sentiment around the USD/JPY pair.

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