Billionaire investor Ron Baron’s unwavering faith in Elon Musk’s SpaceX offers a masterclass in long-term conviction and visionary investing—an approach every serious investor should study closely. At the recent Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, Baron revealed that he plans to hold his SpaceX stake for the rest of his life, expecting to remain invested for at least another decade. This isn’t mere optimism; it’s grounded in a track record of extraordinary growth and an intimate understanding of Musk’s disruptive genius.
Baron’s journey with SpaceX began in 2017 with an initial investment of roughly $1 billion. Today, that stake has ballooned to an estimated $4.5 billion, making SpaceX the second-largest holding in his Baron Partners Fund—just behind Tesla, which accounts for about 30% of the portfolio. What’s striking is Baron’s prediction that SpaceX, currently valued around $350 billion, could deliver a 10x return over the next decade. Musk, ever the optimist, believes the upside could be as high as 30x.
Why does Baron’s conviction matter? Because it underscores a critical trend in today’s investment landscape: alpha—excess returns—are increasingly found by backing visionary leaders and companies that redefine entire industries. Baron’s philosophy is clear: “Alpha is everywhere you’re looking, if you’re willing to buy something that you have to imagine what it will become.” This mindset—investing not just in what a company is today but what it could become—is what separates the great investors from the average.
Consider Baron’s approach to Musk, whom he first met in 2010. Despite Musk’s unconventional appearance and audacious claims—like producing 20 million cars a year—Baron kept a close watch, challenging Musk’s forecasts but never losing sight of his potential. This patience and rigorous due diligence paid off handsomely. Baron’s Tesla investment, begun between 2014 and 2016 with $400 million, has been a cornerstone of his portfolio, even as Tesla’s stock has experienced volatility, down over 19% in 2025 after soaring in prior years.
For investors and advisors, Baron’s strategy offers several actionable insights:
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Embrace Long-Term Vision Over Short-Term Noise: SpaceX and Tesla’s trajectories show that volatility is part of the journey. Investors must resist the urge to sell during downturns and instead focus on the transformative potential of their holdings.
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Invest in Exceptional Leadership: Baron’s emphasis on “exceptional executives” is a reminder that visionary founders and CEOs can be the greatest asset in an investment. Look beyond financial metrics to assess leadership quality and innovation capacity.
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Private Markets Are a Frontier for Alpha: SpaceX remains private, yet it commands a massive valuation and significant portfolio weight. Accredited investors and funds should explore private equity and venture opportunities in disruptive sectors, where public markets may lag.
- Prepare for Multi-Decade Horizons: Baron’s lifetime commitment to SpaceX highlights the importance of patience. Investors should calibrate expectations and portfolio allocations to accommodate long-term growth stories.
A recent study by McKinsey & Company reinforces this viewpoint, noting that companies led by visionary founders outperform their peers by 30% over 10 years. Moreover, the increasing accessibility of private market investments through SPACs, direct listings, and secondary markets means that retail investors might soon have more opportunities to participate in these high-growth stories.
Looking ahead, the space exploration sector itself is poised for explosive growth, driven by satellite internet, space tourism, and defense contracts. SpaceX’s Starship program, for example, could revolutionize payload delivery and interplanetary travel, unlocking new revenue streams. Investors who recognize these trends early and align with visionary leaders like Musk stand to benefit immensely.
In conclusion, Ron Baron’s steadfast commitment to SpaceX and Tesla is not just about backing Elon Musk—it’s about embracing a mindset where imagination, patience, and leadership quality drive extraordinary investment returns. For advisors and investors ready to adapt, the next decade offers unparalleled opportunities to generate alpha by looking beyond the obvious and betting on the future’s boldest innovators.
Stay tuned to Extreme Investor Network for deep dives, exclusive insights, and strategies to navigate this new era of visionary investing.
Source: Ron Baron says he will never sell SpaceX in his lifetime