Welcome to Extreme Investor Network, where we provide you with valuable insights into the stock market, trading, and Wall Street. Today, we will be discussing the potential impact of economic indicators on the price trends of Bitcoin (BTC) and BTC-spot ETFs.
This week, investors are closely watching for softer-than-expected inflation numbers, which could lead to bets on multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts. A dovish Fed rate path may increase buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs and BTC. However, a spike in US jobless claims could reignite fears of a US economic recession, negatively affecting demand for BTC and BTC-spot ETFs.
Furthermore, concerns about a US recession and a more dovish Fed rate path could push the USD/JPY toward 140, potentially triggering another Yen carry trade unwind. This could result in intense selling pressure on BTC. In fact, on Monday, August 5, BTC experienced a 6.91% decline due to the effects of the Yen carry trade unwind on global financial markets.
Uncertainty surrounding the US economy and the Fed rate path has already impacted the buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs, with total net outflows of $167.0 million recorded in the week ending August 9.
Moving forward, investors should be prepared for various price trend scenarios for BTC, including potential moves towards $70,000, drops below $60,000, or falls towards $55,000. It is crucial to stay informed and updated on the latest news and analysis to effectively manage exposures to BTC and the wider crypto market.
In terms of technical analysis, BTC is currently above the 200-day EMA but below the 50-day EMA, indicating a bearish near-term trend but a bullish longer-term trend. Keep an eye out for a breakout above the 50-day EMA, which could lead to a challenge of the $64,000 resistance level and potentially a rise towards $69,000.
On the other hand, a break below the $60,365 support level and the 200-day EMA could signal a bearish trend, with the $52,884 support level coming into play. With a 48.23 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may face a potential drop to the $55,000 handle before entering oversold territory.
As always, sentiment towards supply-demand trends and BTC-spot ETF market-related news will continue to play a significant role in determining the price movements of BTC. Stay tuned to Extreme Investor Network for the latest updates and expert analysis on the stock market, trading, and Wall Street.