Welcome to Extreme Investor Network, where we provide unique insights and analysis on the stock market, trading, and all things Wall Street. Today, we’re taking a closer look at the recent unexpected spike in initial jobless claims and its potential impact on the AUD/USD pair.
The sudden rise in initial jobless claims has raised investor bets on a September Fed rate cut. This could have ripple effects on various aspects of the economy, including wage growth, disposable income, and consumer confidence. If consumers start to curb their spending in response to weaker labor market conditions, it could dampen demand-driven inflationary pressures.
In addition to the jobless claims, we also have finalized nonfarm productivity and unit labor cost figures for Q1 2024 to consider. However, the real key factor impacting the AUD/USD pair will be the looming US Job Report.
Looking ahead, near-term AUD/USD trends will likely be influenced by the Aussie trade data and US labor market numbers. Any weaker-than-expected data from the US labor market could drive investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut, shifting the focus toward the Aussie dollar in terms of monetary policy divergence.
On the technical side, the AUD/USD has been holding above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reflecting bullish price trends. A breakout above the $0.67003 resistance level could signal a move towards the $0.67500 handle. Conversely, a drop below the $0.66500 support level may open the door for the bears to push the pair towards the 50-day EMA and potentially lower.
As investors analyze Australian trade data, real estate sector numbers, and US labor market data, they should also keep an eye on the Daily RSI reading, which currently stands at 54.54. This suggests that the AUD/USD may have room to rise towards the $0.67500 level before potentially entering overbought territory.
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