Convenience Stores Disrupt Breakfast Market: What This Shift Means for Fast-Food Investors and Industry Growth
Why Convenience Stores Are Winning the Breakfast Battle—and What Investors Must Do Now
The breakfast war is heating up, but it’s not the fast-food giants like McDonald’s who are scoring the biggest wins these days. Instead, food-forward convenience stores—think Wawa, Casey’s General Store, Buc-ee’s, and Sheetz—are rapidly eating into the morning meal market share. This shift isn’t just a blip; it’s a structural change reshaping consumer habits and creating new opportunities for savvy investors and advisors.
The Data Speaks: Convenience Stores Surge While Fast Food Stalls
According to Circana, morning visits to fast-food chains in the three months ending July rose a modest 1%, while visits to food-forward convenience stores jumped a striking 9%. This trend reflects a longer-term shift: convenience stores have steadily gained ground in foodservice, with breakfast as their strongest daypart. Meanwhile, fast-food breakfast visits have been declining year-over-year for three consecutive years, with an 8.7% drop in Q2 alone, per Revenue Management Solutions.
McDonald’s, the breakfast titan, saw its morning traffic share fall from 33.5% in early 2019 to 29.9% in H1 2025 (Placer.ai data). CEO Chris Kempczinski openly acknowledged breakfast as the “most economically sensitive daypart,” vulnerable to consumers tightening their belts or reverting to home meals.
What’s Driving the Convenience Store Breakfast Boom?
It’s not just about proximity or price. Convenience stores have evolved from mere pit stops for gas and snacks into serious food destinations. Their advantage lies in a combination of fresh, made-to-order offerings, expanded variety, and a perception of better value for money.
Consider this: 72% of consumers now view convenience stores as a real alternative to fast-food chains for meals, up from 45% two years ago (InTouch Insight survey). Chains like Wawa have grown their customer base by 11.5% since 2022, while McDonald’s, Burger King, and Wendy’s collectively shrank by 3.5% (Indagari data).
Convenience stores also offer a broader beverage portfolio—energy drinks, protein shakes, smoothies—alongside traditional coffee, plus grab-and-go healthy snacks like granola bars and fruit. This appeals to diverse consumer preferences in a way fast-food chains struggle to match.
A Unique Case: Casey’s General Store and the Cult of Breakfast Pizza
One standout example is Casey’s General Store, the third-largest c-store chain in the U.S. and the fifth-largest pizza concept by location count. Its breakfast pizza—a crispy crust topped with cheese, scrambled eggs, and bacon, sausage, or veggies—has developed a cult following since 2001. Same-store sales for prepared food and beverages grew 5.6% in Q2 2024.
Brady Caviness, a Minneapolis account executive, sums it up: “My whole life, I’ve had the Egg McMuffins,” he says, “but when I’m traveling, I indulge in Casey’s breakfast pizza. It’s a unique offering you don’t get at typical fast-food spots.”
Implications for Investors and Advisors: What’s Next?
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Reassess Foodservice Portfolios: Investors should consider increasing exposure to food-forward convenience store chains, especially regional players like Wawa and Casey’s, which are capitalizing on this shift. Their focus on fresh, made-to-order meals aligns with evolving consumer demands for quality and convenience.
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Watch for Strategic Acquisitions: The recent RaceTrac acquisition of Potbelly for $566 million signals consolidation and expansion in the c-store prepared foods segment. Investors should monitor similar moves, as these could reshape competitive dynamics and open new growth avenues.
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Fast-Food Chains Must Innovate or Risk Losing Ground: Traditional quick-service restaurants need to rethink their breakfast strategies—more than just price promotions. Emulating convenience stores’ variety and quality, investing in fresh, customizable options, and leveraging technology like kiosks and mobile ordering could be key to regaining market share.
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Consumer Behavior Trends to Track: The pandemic accelerated remote and hybrid work patterns, which temporarily disrupted foodservice habits. As in-office work stabilizes, convenience stores located along commuting routes stand to benefit from renewed rush-hour traffic, especially mornings and evenings.
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Advisors: Educate Clients on Emerging Foodservice Trends: Help clients understand that “convenience” now means more than speed—it means quality, variety, and value perceived by consumers. This nuance is crucial when evaluating restaurant and retail stocks.
Expert Forecast:
The convenience store breakfast revolution is just beginning. As younger consumers prioritize fresh, customizable meals and seek value without sacrificing quality, c-stores will continue to erode traditional fast-food dominance. By 2026, expect food-forward convenience stores to capture an even larger slice of the $121 billion U.S. foodservice market (NACS data).
For investors, the winners will be those who identify and back chains that combine convenience with culinary innovation. Fast-food giants that fail to adapt risk becoming relics of a bygone era.
Sources: Circana, Revenue Management Solutions, Placer.ai, InTouch Insight, Indagari, National Association of Convenience Stores (NACS), CNBC
Actionable Insight: If you’re advising clients or managing portfolios in the foodservice space, now is the time to pivot. Look beyond headline fast-food names and dig into regional convenience store chains with strong foodservice growth. Monitor M&A activity closely and evaluate how digital ordering and fresh food innovation are reshaping consumer loyalty. The breakfast table is no longer just McDonald’s domain—it’s a battleground for the future of quick, quality meals.
Source: Convenience stores are eating fast-food chains’ breakfast
