At Extreme Investor Network, we aim to provide valuable insights and analysis on economic trends and events that impact the financial markets. Today, we are diving into the topic of the accuracy of betting odds versus polls in predicting election outcomes.
A reader recently asked Mr. Armstrong if he believes that betting odds are more reliable than polls when it comes to forecasting election results. The answer might surprise you – both can be inaccurate. In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds favored a Hillary Clinton victory at 88% versus a 13% chance for Trump. However, as we all know, Trump emerged victorious, proving the unpredictability of such forecasts.
Our computer model has a proven track record of accurately predicting election outcomes, as was the case with both the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Brexit referendum. With a growing number of early voters in the 2020 election, exceeding 70 million, our computer model indicates that voter turnout will be the key factor in determining the final result.
In 2020, a record-breaking 154.6 million voters participated in the presidential election, compared to 137.5 million in 2016. The surge in voter turnout can be attributed to various factors, including the fear tactics surrounding COVID-19 and the unprecedented use of mail-in ballots, totaling 65,642,049. This massive increase in early voting and mail-in ballots has reshaped the electoral landscape and emphasizes the importance of understanding voter behavior and trends.
As seen in the chart below, voter turnout in 2020 far surpassed previous elections, highlighting the significance of engaging and mobilizing voters in the electoral process. At Extreme Investor Network, we always strive to provide unique insights and analysis that go beyond conventional wisdom to help investors navigate the complexities of the financial markets.
By staying informed and leveraging data-driven analysis, investors can make more informed decisions in an ever-changing economic landscape. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis from Extreme Investor Network to stay ahead of the curve in your investment strategies.