At Extreme Investor Network, we keep you ahead of the game with our exclusive insights and analysis on the latest happenings in the stock market and trading world. Today, we delve into the US labor market and consumer confidence trends that are taking diverging paths.
Recently, the US labor market data pointed towards a potential 25-basis point December Fed rate cut, as JOLTS job openings saw a significant decline from 7.861 million in August to 7.443 million in September. This drop in job openings could be a signal of a decrease in consumer spending, which might ultimately impact inflation.
In contrast, consumer confidence showed an upward trend with the CB Consumer Confidence Index increasing from 99.2 in September to 108.7 in October. Despite this positive development, the probability of a 25-bps December Fed rate cut rose from 69.9% to 78.3% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
US equity markets experienced a mixed session on October 29th, with the Dow falling by 0.36%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 saw gains of 0.78% and 0.16% respectively. Notable performers included Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), with the latter rallying by 5.88% in after-hours trading after surpassing earnings estimates.
Looking ahead, the focus will be on key economic indicators such as the US ADP employment change and GDP numbers. Economists anticipate a 115k increase in employment for October, down from 143k in September, and a projected 3.0% growth in the US economy for Q3 2024.
How will these factors impact the DAX trends? While economic indicators play a role, corporate earnings will likely have a more significant influence. As big names like Airbus Group, BASF, Caterpillar, Microsoft Corp., and others report their earnings results, we can expect shifts in the market.
In the near term, keep an eye on crucial data like GDP figures, inflation rates, and jobs reports, as they could shape central bank decisions and market sentiment. Futures are signaling a positive start to the day, but staying informed with our latest news and analysis is key to managing risks effectively.
Technically speaking, the DAX remains bullish despite Tuesday’s loss, sitting comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. A move towards $19,500 could pave the way for a push towards the all-time high of 19,675, while a drop below 19,350 may bring key support levels into play.
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