Welcome to Extreme Investor Network, where we provide you with unique insights and valuable information on the stock market, trading, and all things Wall Street. Today, we will be discussing the short-term forecast for the AUD/USD currency pair, with a focus on the recent US Initial Jobless Claims report.
According to economists, the ISM Services PMI is expected to increase from 51.5 in August to 51.6 in September. However, an unexpected drop below 50.0 could signal a potential hard landing and lead to bets on a 50-basis point Fed rate cut, potentially pushing the AUD/USD pair toward $0.69500.
In the near term, AUD/USD trends are likely to be influenced by the Aussie trade data and the US ISM Services PMI. A weaker-than-expected services sector data could indicate a more dovish Fed rate path, leading to a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Australia and potentially driving the AUD/USD pair towards $0.69500.
While Aussie trade terms are important, the focus for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains on the labor market, consumption, and inflation. Investors should keep a close eye on central bank signals and economic indicators that could impact AUD/USD trends. It is crucial for traders to monitor real-time data, news updates, and expert commentary to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Turning to technical analysis, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bullish outlook. A break above the September 30 high of $0.69411 could support a move towards the $0.70 level, with potential further gains towards $0.70500. On the downside, a drop below $0.68500 could bring the $0.68006 support level into play.
With a 14-period Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 62.04, the Aussie dollar could potentially break above the $0.69500 level before entering overbought territory. Traders should factor in the upcoming Aussie trade data, US ISM Services PMI, and central bank commentary when making trading decisions.
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