Welcome to Extreme Investor Network, where we provide you with expert insights and analysis on the stock market, trading, and Wall Street. Today, we will be discussing the US Core PCE Price Index and its impact on investor sentiment.
Higher-than-expected inflation figures have the potential to shake up the market and reduce bets on a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut. However, it’s essential to also consider personal income and spending trends. Weaker personal income and spending could paint a softer picture of inflation, potentially fueling bets on a rate cut.
The probability of a 50-basis point Fed rate cut was at 60.8% on Thursday, September 26, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Any weaker-than-expected US data could push the USD/JPY down towards 143.5.
In the short term, the USD/JPY trends will be influenced by inflation numbers from Tokyo and the US, as well as central bank commentary. Keep an eye out for hotter-than-expected inflation numbers from Tokyo, which could lead to expectations of a BoJ rate hike in Q4 2024, possibly impacting the USD/JPY pair.
For traders, staying vigilant is key. Monitor economic indicators, central bank views, and expert commentary to adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Be ahead of the market with our expert insights to make informed decisions.
When it comes to technical analysis, the USD/JPY is currently below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bearish trends. A breakout from 145 could see a push towards the 145.891 resistance level. On the flip side, a drop below the 143.495 support level may signal a fall towards 142.5, with the 14-day RSI at 52.10 indicating a potential climb to 147.5 before entering overbought territory.
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