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As the Federal Reserve hints at potential interest rate reductions, the market is eagerly anticipating the next move. Chief economist Claudia Sahm has been vocal about the need for the central bank to start easing monetary policy to avoid a recession. Sahm’s Sahm Rule, which looks at changes in the inflation rate to predict recessions, is approaching a critical point, with the jobless level close to triggering the rule.
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While the Fed remains cautious in its approach to interest rate cuts, the market is pricing in a more aggressive path for rate reductions. Investors are anticipating multiple rate cuts starting as early as September, with the possibility of a full percentage point reduction by the end of the year.
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