USD/JPY forecast: Decreasing imports lead to trade surplus of ¥366.5 billion

Welcome to Extreme Investor Network, where we provide you with valuable insights and unique information about the Stock Market, trading, and all things Wall Street. Today, let’s dive into the latest updates regarding the Fed rate cuts and the implications for the USD/JPY.

According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed rate cut has decreased from 20.7% to 18.8% on April 16. This significant drop indicates a shift in market sentiment towards a less dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve. Additionally, bets on a September rate cut have also become less favorable, with the chances of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.50% rising from 28.6% to 31.5%.

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While Fed speakers will undoubtedly influence market movements, it’s essential to consider external factors such as news updates from the Middle East. Recent developments in the region, including threats of retaliation against the Saturday attack, can have a significant impact on investor sentiment and trading strategies.

In terms of the USD/JPY price action, the currency pair remains in a bullish trend, sitting comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. A potential breakout above the April 17 high of 154.722 could pave the way for further gains towards the 155 handle. On the other hand, a decline below the 153.5 level might signal a bearish momentum, with a possible retest of the 151.685 support level.

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It’s crucial for investors to keep an eye on various factors influencing the USD/JPY, including trade data from Japan, Japanese government statements, Middle East-related news, and central bank commentary. The 14-day RSI reading of 79.40 suggests that the currency pair is currently in overbought territory, raising the possibility of increased selling pressure around the recent high.

Stay tuned to Extreme Investor Network for more exclusive insights and analysis on the Stock Market and trading strategies. Be sure to watch this space for the latest updates and actionable recommendations to help you navigate the ever-changing world of finance with confidence.

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