Sentiment Timing – Morning Notes 6/14/2022

This market is ill and even in overnight trading when they try and prop the tape up when the peeps are sleeping, is FAILING!

The overnight bulls rallied the /es up to 3806 before sellers stepped in hard and drove the price back down to 3760.

I heard for many spx points up, the Perma bulls asking what is the reason to sell when the Fed is so accommodating?

The same question now arises when the Fed is stuck between a rock and hard place, being forced to raise rates as this administration does everything possible to destroy our economy for the sake of climate change.

What is the reason to buy?

I have been chuckling at the “Gurus” saying the market has priced in 5 rate hikes.

If it took the Fed zero-interest policy and building their balance sheet 9 trillion dollars to get the spx to 4800, how does ANYBODY know what has been priced in already?

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It worked in the past, but now we will see the bottom callers faces smeared in egg for the next couple of years.

That doesn’t mean we can’t trade the face-ripping squeezes, but calling a long-term bottom is going to be very difficult with the nightmare our country is in right now.

Now that I got that off my chest, I am seeing buy signals on the /es, but not the spx.

That is suggesting we could start to see the rate of change to the downside start to slow.

A bounce followed by another new low would show buy signals on the spx 60’s.

The takeaway, it’s time to start becoming a little defensive on the short side and expect some type of face-ripping squeeze to start any time.

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But as I mentioned yesterday, fear is stronger than greed and the peeps are throwing in the towel with our government/Joe & Co “blame everything/everyone”, except their failed policies on what’s caused this country’s death spiral.

Just like buy signals failed when the Fed was backstopping this market, buy signals will fail when panic is in the air, which it is now.

But we do have to listen to what is in front of our eyes, and that is buy signals short term.

For today, the bulls need to get the price back above 3815 for a reaction trade up to 3850-ish.

But the need to stay above 3850 to sidestep this panic selling and maybe start some type of short-lived squeeze higher.

Until they get above 3850, the bears will continue to try and press the tape lower.

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If the bears get the price below 3835, there is another more important support at 3820.

That is what they need to bust through to cause another round of panic selling, with 3650 as the next support line. -Gary Dean

SPX Hourly Technicals

Stochastics: Oversold 

Divergences: Small Bullish Divergences

Resistance Pivots: R1-3796 R2-3815 R3-3840

Support Pivots: S1-3735 S2-3720 S3-3695

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