Sentiment Timing – Morning Notes 4/7/2022

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Futures are unchanged and so far, everything is going as planned. From yesterday: My downside target from the short entry has always been between 4450-4400 and we should be getting close to the “mini panic line” at 4500 near the open. If the bears can keep the momentum going and press the spx below that pivot, we should see 4465 become a magnet in a fairly fast manner. I will be looking to take 1/2 of my short position off at/near the 4465 support and leave 1/2 with a stop at entry 4550.

So if you followed the trade setup, you just banked 100+- spx points for half your position, and your stop is at entry.

Related:  Sentiment Timing - Morning Notes 6/20/2022

I remain in trade mode here, as April is historically one of the strongest months of the year and Woody has been identifying his expected low date.

If we see another couple of days of selling, I believe we will have the majority waiting for a bounce to short-which they will end up being chum thrown into the water for the face-ripping short squeeze to follow.

But for now, we manage our open trades and maybe we head down and test the 4300 or lower before the bounce. It’s important to understand, that we have tools in our arsenal that NOBODY else has. Our Predictive Analytics Model-which uses Time, Sentiment, and Technicals to determine our trades.

But nothing is 100% and why when wrong, it is usually an extended move in the direction we initially expected. So maybe the 4400 is not the low and we head to 4300/4200, we are on the correct side!

Related:  Sentiment Timing - Morning Notes 4/22/2022

We were looking to get long in the 4100 area and upside targets were 4500 and then 4600. The bulls did press the tape a little longer than expected, but we were already looking that way and then fading the move to the short side (current position) Just those 2 trade setups (using 4400 as a profit target) you made over 400 spx points or just about 10% in less than a month. If trading spy options in both directions, that is 40 points you made–which very well could have amounted to over $20,000 just trading a few contracts.

The next downside target is 4400 and if that fails to hold, then 4300. Leave stop at entry and when if we get down to 4400, take another piece of the short side off and lower stop to 44500. G- 

Related:  Sentiment Timing - Morning Notes 6/30/2022

SPX Hourly Technicals

Stochastics: Oversold

Divergences: No Divergences 

Resistance Pivots: R1-4500 R2-4514 R3-4528

Support Pivots: S1-4450 S2-4420 S3-4400

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