Market Talk – April 12, 2022

ASIA:

China’s producer inflation for March was higher than expected. The producer price index surged 8.3% as compared with a year ago, official data showed Monday, above expectations for a 7.9% increase in a Reuters poll. Chinese consumer inflation also rose more than expected in March, with the consumer price index climbing 1.5% year-on-year. That was above expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.2% increase.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 164.28 points or -0.61% to 26,821.52
  • Shanghai decreased 84.72 points or -2.61% to 3,167.13
  • Hang Seng decreased 663.71 points or -3.03% to 21,208.30
  • ASX 200 increased 7.20 points or 0.10% to 7,485.20
  • Kospi decreased 7.29 points or -0.27% to 2,693.10
  • SENSEX decreased 482.61 points or -0.81% to 58,964.57
  • Nifty50 decreased 109.40 points or -0.62% to 17,674.95

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00409 or -0.55% to 0.74178
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00186 or -0.27% to 0.68260
  • USDJPY increased 1.232 or 0.99% to 125.521
  • USDCNY increased 0.01766 or 0.28% to 6.38534

Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 0.27 USD/t oz. or 0.01% to 1,946.12
  • Silver increased 0.095 USD/t. oz or 0.38% to 24.845

Some economic news from last night:

China:

CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.6% to 0.0%

CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.9% to 1.5%

PPI (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 8.8% to 8.3%

New Zealand:

Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) increased from -7.8% to -1.3%

Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 1.1% to -0.5%

Related:  Market Talk - May 13, 2022

Some economic news from today

China:

M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Mar) increased from 9.2% to 9.7%

New Loans (Mar) increased from 1,230.0B to 3,130.0B

Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY) (Mar) remain the same at 11.4%

Chinese Total Social Financing (Mar) increased from 1,190.0B to 4,650.0B

Japan:

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) decreased from 31.6% to 30.2%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Ukraine’s economy could shrink by 45.1% this year, while sanctions against Russia are expected to cut its economic output by 11.2%, economists say. Emerging and developing countries in this region already had been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank report notes, adding that “this would be the second contraction in as many years, and twice as large as the pandemic-induced contraction in 2020.”

More broadly, the regional economy of Europe and Central Asia is now expected to shrink by 4.1% this year — reversing a prewar forecast of 3% growth. The World Bank says that Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Tajikistan are projected to fall into recession this year, in addition to Russia and Ukraine. More than 4.5 million people have fled Ukraine as refugees since Russia first invaded in late February.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

  • CAC 40 increased 7.59 points or 0.12% to 6,555.81
  • FTSE 100 decreased 51.25 points or -0.67% to 7,618.31
  • DAX 30 decreased 90.89 points or -0.64% to 14,192.78

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.0006 or 0.06% to 1.08817
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.0007 or -0.05% to 1.30235
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00276 or -0.30% to 0.93138
Related:  Market Talk - August 31, 2022

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker remain the same at 1.0%

Construction Output (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 1.6% to -0.1%

U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 10.0% to 6.1%

GDP (MoM) decreased from 0.8% to 0.1%

GDP (YoY) decreased from 10.5% to 9.5%

Index of Services decreased from 1.4% to 0.8%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 3.0% to 1.6%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 0.7% to -0.6%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 0.9% to -0.4%

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 5.3% to 3.6%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change decreased from 1.3% to 1.0%

Trade Balance (Feb) increased from -23.90B to -20.59B

Trade Balance Non-EU (Feb) decreased from -11.64B to -12.14B

US/AMERICAS:

The White House issued a warning – the next inflation report will be “extraordinarily elevated.” The CPI report will be released tomorrow morning, and the White House is preparing for the number to cause reason for panic. Secretary Psaki is calling the matter “Putin’s price hike” and blaming the elevated readings on the war in Ukraine. As a reminder, February’s report reached 7.9%, marking a 40-year high.

The US Department of Education is continuing to stall student loan payments. Borrowers will be granted an additional four months to make payments in an effort to help those who fell behind during the pandemic. Educational debt in the US has surpassed $1.7 trillion as the burden overpowers overall credit card and household debt. Around 10 million borrowers are in delinquency or default. Therefore, for four extra months wage garnishment and collection activity will be on pause, but ultimately the price of tuition must be paid.

Related:  Market Talk - July 19, 2022

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 413.04 points or -1.19% to 34,308.08
  • S&P 500 declined 75.75 points or -1.69% to 4,412.53
  • Nasdaq declined 299.04 points or -2.18% to 13,411.96
  • Russell 2000 declined 14.24 points or -0.71% to 1,980.32

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 83.86 points or -0.38% to 27,790.49
  • TSX 60 declined 3.82 points or -0.29% to 1,320.55

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 1,369.41 points or -1.16% to 116,952.85

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil decreased 3.97 USD/BBL or -4.04% to 94.280
  • Brent decreased 4.5 USD/BBL or -4.38% to 98.28
  • Natural gas increased 0.355 USD/MMBtu or 5.65% to 6.6320
  • Gasoline decreased 0.1212 USD/GAL or -3.87% to 3.0104
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0385 USD/GAL or -1.16% to 3.2791

The above data was collected around 14:06 EST on Monday

  • Top commodity gainers: Wheat (2.95%) and Natural Gas (5.65%), Orange Juice(3.37%), Cotton (2.70%)
  • Top commodity losers: Lumber(-7.90%), Aluminum (-4.31%), Brent(-4.38%) and Crude Oil (-4.04%)

The above data was collected around 14:22 EST on Monday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.24%(+1.5bp), US 2’s 2.50% (-0.016%), US 10’s 2.7858% (+8.2bps); US 30’s 2.82% (+0.100%), Bunds 0.8200% (+11bp), France 1.312% (+5.3bp), Italy 2.463% (+8.4bp), Turkey 23.94% (-6bp), Greece 2.874% (-1.6bp), Portugal 1.723% (+8.4bp); Spain 1.781% (+7.2bp) and UK Gilts 1.848% (+9.6bp).

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