Forecasting Natural Gas Prices: Anticipating Resistance Following a Bullish Rally

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The Downtrend in Natural Gas

Natural gas is currently facing a clear downtrend, with pressure continuing to push prices lower after a bearish close last week. Despite the potential for today’s advance to lead to higher prices, the overall trend remains bearish. This is evident from the bearish shooting star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart and the price behavior closing below key levels.

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If natural gas bounces higher, it is likely to encounter resistance that could trigger a retest of trend lows and possibly a drop through last week’s low. This indicates a challenging road ahead for natural gas bulls.

Potential Support Levels

If natural gas breaks below last week’s low, it could be heading towards a support zone between 1.94 and 1.91. These levels represent key support areas, including a prior minor swing high and a Fibonacci retracement level. Further support can be found at 1.85, 1.83, and 1.80, with 1.80 being a significant level within a bottom symmetrical triangle pattern.

Identifying Resistance Levels

Today’s high of 2.10 is acting as a nearby resistance level for natural gas. A bullish breakout above this level could lead to resistance at the downtrend line or the 20-Day MA, currently at 2.23. However, the key resistance level lies at 2.27, as a rally above this point would signal a bullish reversal and potentially invalidate the downtrend correction pattern.

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