Forecasting AUD to USD Exchange Rate: Analyzing Australian Labor Trends Compared to US Jobless Claims

Welcome to Extreme Investor Network, where we provide you with expert insights and analysis on the Stock Market, trading, and all things related to Wall Street. Today, we are diving into the latest market trends and forecasts for the AUD/USD pair.

Recent data has shown weaker-than-expected numbers in the US, which could potentially test investor expectations of the country avoiding a recession. Additionally, the housing sector data has drawn interest from the Fed, especially considering the persistent issue of housing services inflation. Any deterioration in the housing market or an increase in supply could soften inflation in this sector.

In the midst of all this, FOMC member chatter is something to watch closely. The likes of Michael Barr, Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester, and Raphael Bostic are set to speak, and their views on a potential Fed interest rate cut in September could have a significant impact on the market.

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Looking specifically at the AUD/USD pair, short-term trends are likely to be influenced by Australian and US labor market data, as well as central bank commentary. Tighter-than-expected Australian labor market data could spark investor bets on an RBA rate hike, while expectations for Fed rate cuts may shift the monetary policy divergence towards the Aussie dollar.

On the price action front, the AUD/USD is currently sitting comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling bullish trends. A breakout above the $0.67003 resistance level could pave the way for a run towards $0.67500, with the $0.67967 level potentially coming into play.

Conversely, a drop below $0.66500 could open the door for a test of the $0.65760 support level and the 200-day EMA. Keeping an eye on central bank commentary, Australian labor market data, and the US economic calendar will be crucial in navigating these price movements.

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With a Daily RSI reading of 65.56, the AUD/USD pair may have room to rally towards $0.67500 before potentially entering overbought territory. Stay tuned to Extreme Investor Network for more in-depth analysis and actionable insights into the world of trading and investing.

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