Focus on China’s Rates Decision and US Labor Data: AUD to USD Forecast

Welcome to Extreme Investor Network, where we provide unique and valuable insights into the stock market, trading, and all things Wall Street. Today, we’ll be diving into the US Economic Calendar, specifically focusing on jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

As we head into Thursday’s trading session, it’s essential for investors to keep a close eye on the US labor market and manufacturing sector data. These two key indicators are likely to have a significant impact on the AUD/USD pair.

Economists are predicting a decrease in initial jobless claims from 242k to 235k in the week ending June 15. A larger-than-expected drop in jobless claims could lead to a shift in investor expectations regarding a potential Fed rate cut in September. This could result in tighter labor market conditions, impacting wage growth and disposable income trends.

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In addition to jobless claims, investors should also pay attention to the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which is expected to remain at 4.5 in June. While a surprise decrease in the index may test investor expectations, it is important to note that the manufacturing sector only accounts for less than 30% of the US economy and is unlikely to influence the Fed rate path significantly.

Looking beyond the numbers, FOMC member chatter and reactions to recent retail sales data will also be crucial factors to watch. FOMC Member Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak, and his comments could potentially move the dial for investors.

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In terms of short-term forecasting, the AUD/USD trends will be influenced by US labor market data, services sector PMIs, and central banks. A weaker-than-expected labor data from the US coupled with policy support from Beijing could tilt monetary policy divergence in favor of the Aussie dollar.

On the price action front, the AUD/USD is currently sitting comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling bullish momentum. A break above the $0.67003 resistance level could pave the way for a move towards $0.67500 and potentially even higher levels. However, a drop below the $0.66500 level could bring the bears into play, targeting the 50-day EMA and the $0.65760 support level.

With all these factors in play, it’s crucial for investors to stay informed and vigilant as market dynamics continue to evolve. Keep an eye on the PBoC, US jobless claims, and Fed chatter to navigate the AUD/USD price action effectively. At Extreme Investor Network, we strive to provide you with the latest and most insightful analysis to help you make informed investment decisions. Stay tuned for more updates and expert insights on the stock market and trading landscape.

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