Is the economy in a recession? ‘What you call it is less relevant,’ says one economist: Here’s ‘what really matters’

Recession obsession fears

There’s a lot of speculation lately about whether the U.S. is officially in a recession. Both President Joe Biden and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said we’re not there just yet, pointing to the strong labor market and rising wages. The official declaration typically comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research, and it has yet to call it. But regardless … Read more

Big payroll gains push recession fears into the corner — for now

Recession obsession fears

June’s big payroll jump helped clear away some of those recession clouds for a U.S. economy that nonetheless faces some stormy weather ahead. Job gains of 372,000 convinced most Wall Street economists that the idea of a first-half recession is “fanciful,” as one put it. A 3.6% unemployment rate is hardly consistent with an economic downturn, at … Read more

A shallow recession is on the way, strategists warn. Here’s how it could play out

Recession obsession fears

A shallow recession in the U.S. is a “virtual certainty” in the third quarter, according to Destination Wealth Management’s Michael Yoshikami, as the Federal Reserve launches a historic attack on inflation. The Fed on Wednesday announced a 75 basis point hike to interest rates, its largest since 1994. Chairman Jerome Powell also signaled the Federal Open … Read more

Recession is now the ‘most likely’ outcome for the U.S. economy, not a soft landing, Larry Summers says

Larry Summers

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, whose out-of-consensus views about the risks of persistent inflation have come true, is reiterating his concerns about a potential U.S. downturn: He now says a recession is “the most likely thing” partly because the Federal Reserve “is going to have to keep going [in its effort to subdue inflation] until … Read more

‘Calamity’ may be coming, stock-market setup similar to 1999: Jeffrey Gundlach

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says the bond market is signaling trouble ahead

When 2-year and 10-year yields invert, ‘you’re supposed to be on recession watch, and we are,’ says DoubleLine chief A “calamity” may be coming for markets, potentially in 2023, Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer, and chief investment officer of DoubleLine, warned Tuesday on stage at the Exchange ETF conference in Miami.  The Treasury market’s yield … Read more

(Inverted) Yield Curves for Fed Employees, Reprise

Inverted Yield Curves and Recessions for Dummies

Yield Curves for Dummies, Reprise Last week The United States Federal Reserve released a document about inverted yield curves and recession correlation. Our question: Why does yield curve inversion imply a potential recession? We hope the following helps some. First the statistics. The Data Dependent Take Lately major financial websites and several banks (Mitsubishi, and DB to … Read more